Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits Without treaty change, which I can't see, I can't see any of this being delivered before a referendum, other than possibly "boosting competitiveness", whatever that means. So I guess it will come down to the rest of the EU saying "Non" for a while, a last minute fudge of some sort, and being asked to take it on trust.
Yep, wishy-washy minor tinkering that will produce no substantive change, will never be enshrined in law or delivered and would have no material effect if it were to be. Entirely as predicted. Wilson and Heath will be simpering smugly in their graves. Their boy's a chip off the old block all right. If Mr Cameron really wants an entirely different relationship for Britain with the EU with a special set of rules just for us, there is only one way to achieve it. Repeal the European Communities Act, formally declare that Britain is to withdraw from the EU, invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and begin negotiations to set down the terms of Britain's bilateral trade relationship with the single market as a non-member, the same as every other country outside the EU. Its not difficult Mr Cameron, it just requires some honesty and leadership. I won't hold my breath.
The parallels with the 1973-1975 period are interesting. In the 70s it was the Labour Party which was deeply split over Europe and the only policy Harold Wilson could get them all to agree on was holding a referendum. It was a political fudge designed to paper over the cracks. So in government from 1974, Wilson had to hold a rather ineffectual renegotiation followed by a referendum with a huge majority, which had the effect of shutting up the Europhobic (left) wing of the Labour party for years. In the 2000's it is the Conservative Party which is deeply split over Europe and the only policy David Cameron can get them all to agree on is holding a referendum. It is a political fudge designed to paper over the cracks. So in government today, Cameron has to hold a rather ineffectual renegotiation followed by a referendum. He hopes there will be a huge majority, which will have the effect of shutting up the Europhobic (right) wing of the Conservative party for years. In a further parallel, Wilson in government had to deal with a House of Lords with a Tory majority; today Cameron has to deal with a House of Lords with a Labour & LibDem majority. Funny isn't it, how history repeats itself? But how it's more farcical the second time around?
Except today we have much greater access to information (and disinformation) than in the 70's. Yes it is a fudge, but there will be a referendum and if any one side is confident of success then it is they who are living in cloud cuckoo land. Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries Effectively a veto of QMV - won't happen - Fail Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape Yeah yeah yeah - less red tape in the EU ? - Fail Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments Requires treaty change, won't happen - Fail Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits Illegal under current rules, DC already backtracking - Fail Where does that leave David Cameron ?
I voted Yes in 1975 to the Common Market, and I would do so again today, if that is what was on offer, but it isn't, and with hindsight it wasn't then.
Still, at least we will eventually get to have the referendum and then the politicians can keep us in or keep us in as I think a large majority in favour of leaving will be required for any action to be taken and that is not looking likely at the moment .
I think it leaves DC exactly as you described earlier - he'll try to present some sort of "fudge" as progress, and then cross his fingers that, like the Scottish referendum, it will go the way he hopes. He must be very depressed to see the ever increasing chaos with the EU/borders/Shengen situation - it's come to something when countries like Sweden are deciding to reintroduce border checks, and IKEA is running low on beds for migrants, apparently.
The current era feels nothing like 1974 to me. If the lights go out this winter, it might start to, a little, but if they do go out it will be for a very different reason - rather than strike action it will be due to incompetence on the part of recent governments who have made inadequate plans for our future energy security.
If the British public does get a meaningful vote on this, you can be sure of the same fear campaign as we had with the Scottish independence vote. The government could not lie straight in bed. I will be voting out.
I wonder how many English people might tend towards voting "Out" because it would annoy the Scottish Nationalists so much?
Given the current crises in Europe who knows where we will be in 12 months time, but the tide is currently against the EU and I don't see it changing any time soon. The current flow of migrants could be the tip of the iceberg and caring compassion will be replaced by OMG we can't cope, or we don't want to cope because the price will be too high.
I think a fear campaign will backfire and be an easy target for the Outers who will portray a positive vision of the UK outside the EU.
Astute article here: Allister Heath: Europhiles think history is on their side – they could be in for a shock - Telegraph
An in out pole would be interesting with this thread, just to see how it changes over the coming months (years). Steve
There's a great deal of tendentious, inconsistent waffle here, obviously, but the writer does make one good point. Mid-term votes tend to be used by voters to express dissatisfaction with the government in office; in other words, it is a drawback of referendums that some voters cast their vote not on the subject in issue but for wholly unrelated reasons. There is an element of random dice-throwing.
Why am I not surprised at this opinion. I thought it was rather good. The Inners will have a hard time defending the status quo, given the current crises within the EU, and resort to fear tactics, whilst the Outers will be able to put forward a positive view of a UK outside the EU trading with the EU, remember we take more from them than they take from us, and the rest of the world. I think Dave has miscalculated and it will come back to bite him. He sought peace within his party by offering a referendum and the time is approaching for that referendum. Who said Peace is very easy to attain, if you just surrender to the Eurocrats and leave them in control of the EU forever. Peace with honour and freedom is difficult, dangerous and expensive to seek. or something like that
I'm struggling to come up with an example of a newspaper journalist who is not being tendentious ... ... ... Nope.
not going to offer any opinions on this or any other E,U reff threads. just going to sit back and giggle to my self. batter on folks, i have been needing a laugh.
