In many respects the MPs have been told by May all options are impossible except for her deal or no deal. The MPs did not want to vote to force indicative votes, they wanted May to promise to hold them which she refused to do. Last night they then voted to ensure indicative votes would happen. The results of the indicative votes will be probably bring a list of options that will be decided upon. These will likely end up being Extension for 18 months / to achieve new suggestions & resolve stalemate / hold referendum / hold election Mays Deal and progress to Trade talks Mays Deal confirmed by referendum (Mays Deal or Remain) Its now very possible that if May decides to refuse to initiate the results of indicative votes, the MPs will bring another motion to force her to accept them. If that vote is sucessful, she will have to agree to do so or ask the house to vote for an election - she cannot decide that herself. I think its a toss up betwen Mays Deal & long extension. That way Tories either progress, or have time to dump May, and regroup. They all get to kick the can down the road. With May out of the way, things can only improve. PS: I hope you like the pic "dems da rulz" https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/which-brexit-plan-are-you
In summary - May is the problem ? You may well be right, I’m not sure I can work out where it’s all going anymore. I still think they will revoke article 50 somehow.
May is a significant part of the problem. She has no leadership skills or charisma. Her being dumped will ease the anger of many. Revoking art50 will make some of the public mad. Better for Remain politico's just to extend, let people get more used to the idea that Brexit should be much much softer... and hope it all slowly fades away...
Since HMRC could not confirm yesterday is we are out or not on 29th midnight, I called them again today, they confirmed 99.9% (this is what they said ) that the Artcile 50 is extended until 22nd of May. Apparently HMRC received only yesterday afternoon the official notification from the Gov...however, the helpful bloke I spoke with said that "we don't know what might happen in the next couple of days with the Parilament taking over" What does this mean? The best "climate" to build medium term business plans....
She seems determined to do things her way, I’ll give her that. Looking at polls for the basic leave / remain question it’s still fairly close I think. A second referendum could cause more problems if it’s remain by a small margin, though it would be interesting to see the reaction of the remoaners if it came out leave again.
EU law does have supremacy over a member state's law, however, the current law in the UK is that 29th March is the withdrawal date and the fact the EU agreed an extension does not overrule this as the EU did not issue an EU Regulation (they can't in this matter) which would override UK law. So there does need to be an SI whisked through Parliament to change the leave date from 29th March. Failing which the Govt would be in breach of the law. Caveat - I haven't read the entire Act which incorporates the leave date of 29th March, there may be a 'get out' in there already, I'm just stating the legal principles which apply.
My understanding is that the EU have already agreed to extend the date (April 12 or May 22) and have made clear they will not extend it further unless there is a concrete plan in place. Thus I don't think an extension of XX months is a viable option unless it's also coupled with a specific plan to either leave on WA or stay. i just can't see the EU agreeing an extension just to carry on negotiating or to hold another referendum or even a GE where the outcome is unknown. This brings the HoC back to the options of accepting the WA or shirking their responsibilities and putting a revised referendum to the people i.e. 1. Remain in the EU on the same terms as currently in place 2. Leave the EU on the WA terms You can't give 3 options in a referendum so IMO if there is to be a referendum then it has to be the above 2 options. The UK could then ask the EU to extend the leave date to accommodate the new referendum knowing that the UK will either have to stay or go (finally!) and the EU would grant the extension as there's a plan there its not just more of the same. However, as it takes, I think, 22 weeks to schedule and hold a referendum, that would leave the tricky situation of the European Parliament elections due to be held in May and I've no idea how to deal with that.
Tusk said that a long extension is possible provided that there is a plan. It was his preffered suggestion. If Mays redlines were not there anymore, there would be plenty to discuss. The EU would not insist the UK leaves if the government puts an election or referendum up as a reason to delay. New countries join the EU and get MEPs based on some formula or other. The UK could use that. The MEP issue is a small thing compared to the rest of Brexit. A million people would never march for an MEP cause.
@PaulPhillips Please read post 29247...HMRC received official instructions from the government yesterday. So been pushed back to 22nd of May. EDITED. It was UK that requested the extension not the EU, what makes you believe that it was the other way around?
Yep, I read that post and thought it strange and I agree the UK requested the extension not the EU, perhaps my post wasn't clear on that point. However, my understanding is that the arrangement was if TM puts the WA before Parliament and it gets passed then the leave date is 22 May to enable the necessary legislation to be enacted within the UK. But....if the WA was voted against (for the 3rd time) then the leave date is 12 April. As no MV3 has taken place yet, it's strange the Govt is telling HMRC the leave date is in May. Or....have a I missed an important piece of news over the last 4 days? It's possible as to all intents and purposes I've given up following Brexit in the news.
That was my point really Jez, there has to be a plan, it can't just be more of the same. It will be interesting to see what the outcome is of either of those if they happen - this whole process has turned into the biggest political farce of all time. There are some significant issues with regards timing of Brexit and the European elections. Does the UK take part or not? If they take part, with an unknown future will anyone stand? Will anyone vote? (Does anyone bother vote in the European elections anyway?). If the UK doesn't take part and then ends up remaining in the EU there will be no UK representatives in the European Parliament. Admittedly this is not the biggest issue taxing the brains of Govt & Parliament at present but it is a consideration.
The referendum was supposed to be advisory. The Govt made it law by including it in their manifesto. They then held an Election once they had done that and lost their majority to govern. Make of that what you wish.
I think they are saying that with Mays position there is nothing further to discuss. Change position and we can talk? The only person who cares about MEPs is Farage. He makes a fortune at it!
And not content with splintering the Country, they are now doing the same to their own Party and the Pm appears to have lost her mandate to even govern that.
This same referendum that on 21 Feb, May's lawyer Sir James Eadie QC told the High Court in London that May KNOWS that the 2016 EU Referendum leave vote was corrupt & illegal as defined by the Representation of the People Act 1983 ? Anybody seen a mention of that in the Mail/ Express or BBC News, Panorama, Marr show etc?
